Doc 9953. Edition 1
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Report of the Independent Experts to CAEP/8 on the Second NOx Review and the Establishment of Medium and Long Term Technology Goals for NOx (English-only publication)
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Published in English by the INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION 999 University Street, Montral, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7 For ordering information and for a complete listing of sales agents and booksellers, please go to the ICAO website at www.icao.int Doc 9953, Report of the Independent Experts to CAEP/8 on the Second NOx Review and the Establishment of Medium and Long Term Technology Goals for NOx Order Number 9953 ISBN 978-92-9231-672-3 ICAO 2010 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the International Civil Aviation Organization.
1 ICAO COMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION Report of the Independent Experts to CAEP/ 8 on the Second NOx Review and the Establishment of Medium and Long Term Technology Goals for NOx Authors P. Kuentzmann France L. Maurice US M. Ralph UK, Chair J. Tilston UK
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents of the Report Page 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Introduction 6 3. 2009 Second LTTG NOx Review, London UK March 2009 7 4. Science Overview 8 4.1 Introduction 8 4.2 Environmental Need 9 4.3 Level of Scientific Understanding 9 4.4 Summary 15 5. Technology Review 16 5.1 2009 Review Data 16 5.2 Status of LTO NOx for Certified Engines and High TRL Rigs 20 5.3 Issues Relating to Small and Mid-Size Engines 23 5.4 Rate of Technology Improvement 23 5.5 Trade-offs 25 5.6 Cruise NOx 27 6. Discussion 31 6.1 Review of Progress towards Goals 31 6.2 Whether to Change the MT and LT Goals Set in 2006 32 6.3 Definition of the Achievement of a Goal 33 6.4 Cruise/Metric 36 6.5 Trade-offs 38 7. Conclusions 39 7.1 Process 39 7.2 Science 39 7.3 Progress Towards the Goals 40 7.4 Whether to Change the Goals 40 7.5 Whether to Change the Definition of Meeting a Goal 41 7.6 Cruise NOx 41 7.7 Trade-offs 42 8. Recommendations 43 9. Appendices Appendix A Technology Readiness Levels 44 Appendix B Terms of Reference for 2009 Review 45 Appendix C IE Report to Steering Group, June 2009 48 Appendix D List of Presentations 51 Appendix E Attendees 52 Appendix F Acronyms and Abbreviations 54
3 List of Figures and Tables List of Figures Figure 1 Bar charts of radiative forcing from aviation effects to 2005 11 Figure 2 Aviation RF components for 2005, 2020 forecast and 2050 scenarios 12 Figure 3 CAEP Data presented to the 2006 LTTG Review 16 Figure 4 CAEP Data presented to the 2009 LTTG Review 18 Figure 5 Historical engine data points, recent certifications, uncertified engines and high TRL Demonstrations and rig tests 19 Figure 6 Comparison of combustor technologies for a fixed engine cycle 25 Figure 7 Comparison of CFM56 RQL, DAC and DLI TAPS engine emissions 27 Figure 8 RQL combustor schematic 27 Figure 9 Temperature regimes for 45 OPR RQL combustor 28 Figure 10 Direct Lean Injection combustor schematic 29 Figure 11 Fuel staging in a DLI TAPS combustor during cruise 30 List of Tables Table 1 IE Summary of Combustor Technology Data LTO NOx emission 17 Table 2 Analysis of the Characteristic NOx Slopes OPR Ranges for the Engines Shown in Figure 5. 34 Table 3 The Proportion of Orders Taken for Each Marque of GEnX Powered B787s 35
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TABLE OF CONTENTS