Circular 149. Future Availability of Aviation Fuel

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Circular 149

Future Availability of Aviation Fuel

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CIRCULAR FUTURE AVAILABILITY OF AVIATION FUEL Prepared by the Secretary General and published by decision of the Council INTERNATIONAL C'IVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION MONTREAL CANADA

Published in separate English, French, Spanish and Russian editions by the Inter- national Civil Aviation Organization. All correspondence, except orders and sub- scriptions, should be addressed to the Secretary General of ICAO, P.O. Box 400, Succursale Place de I'/lviation internationale, 1000 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 2R2. Orders for this publication should be sent to one of the following addresses, together with the appropriate remittance by bank draft or post office money order in U.S. dollars or the currency of the country in which the order is placed. International Civil Aviation Organization. Attention Distribution Officer, P.O. Box 400, Succursale Place de 1'Aviation internationale, 1000 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 2R2 Egypt Arab Republic of. ICAO Representative, Middle East and Eastern African Office, 16 Hassan Sabri, Zamalek, Cairo. France. er6stntant de l'OAC1, Bureau Europe, 3bis, villa Emile-Bergerat, 92 200 Neuilly-sur-Seine. India. Oxford Book and Stationery Co., Scindia House, New Delhi or 1 7 Park Street, Calcutta. Japan. Japan Civil Aviation Promotion Foundation, No. 38 Shiba Kotohira-Cho, Minato-Ku, Tokyo. Mexico. Representante de la OACI, Oficina Norteambrica y Caribe, Apartado postal 5-377, M6xico 5, D.F. Pew. Repreeentante de la OACI, Oficina Sudambrica, Apartado 41 27, Lima. Senegal. Reprtacntant de I'OACI, Bureau Afrique, Bolte postale 2356, Dakar. Spain. Libreria de AeronAutica y Astronkutica Sumaas, Desengdo, 12-30-3, Madrid 13. Sweden. C.E. Fritzes Kungl. Hovbokhandel, Fredsgatan 2, Box 16356, Stockholm 16. Thailand. ICAO Representative, Far East and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 614, Bangkok. United Kingdom. Civil Aviation Authority, Printing and Publications Services, Grcville Houae, 37 Gratton Road, Cheltenham, Glos., GLSO 2BN. Do you receive the ICAO BULLETIN The ICAO Bulletin contains a concise account of the activities of the Organization as well as articles of interest to the aeronautical world. The Bullrtln will also keep you up to date on the latest ICAO publica. tions, their contents, amendments, supplements, corrigenda, and prices. Avsilrble in thre8 toparats editions English, French md Spaniah. Annual aubrcription U.S.616.00 aurfsce maill U.8.20.00 air mail.

Future Availability of Aviation Fuel Circular 1 49-AT152

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 INTRODUCTION .................................................... 1 Origin of study and sources used .................................. 1 Factors affecting the fuel situation in the long term ............. 2 THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY ............................................. 3 Patterns of energy consumption .................................... 3 .............. The demand for energy in relation to economic growth 7 Projections of total energy demand ................................ 8 Projections of the demand for oil ................................. 9 ....................... SUPPLY . OIL AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES 13 The concept of energy reserves ................................... 13 Reserves of oil ................................................... 13 ........................................ World oil trade and supply 17 Alternative energy resources ...................................... 18 Aspects of aviation fuel supply ................................... 19 PRICE TRENDS AND PROSPECTS ..................................... 23 ........... Past developments of crude oil and aviation fuel prices 23 Possible future price developments ............................ 26 CIVIL AVIATION FUEL REQUIREMENTS .................................. 29 Traffic development ............................................... 29 ..................................... Efficiency in the use of fuel 30 The next decade ................................................. 31 The longer term ................................................... 31 Fuel requirements ................................................ 33 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................... 35 The energy situation generally ............................... 35 Aviation fuel supplies ............................................ 36 Price developments .......................................... 37

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