Doc 9853. Asia/Pacific Area Traffic Forecasts 2004-2020 (English-only publication)

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Doc 9853

Asia/Pacific Area Traffic Forecasts 2004-2020 (English-only publication)

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Orders should be sent to one of the following addresses, together with the appropriate remittance by bank draft, cheque or money orderin U.S. dollars or the currency of the country in which the order is placed. Credit card orders American Express, MasterCard and Visaare accepted at ICAO Headquarters.International Civil Aviation Organization. Attention Document Sales Unit, 999 University Street, Montral, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7Telephone 1 514 954-8022 Facsimile 1 514 954-6769 Sitatex YULCAYA E-mail salesicao.intWorld Wide Web http//www.icao.intChina. Glory Master International Limited, Room 434B, Hongshen Trade Centre, 428 Dong Fang Road, Pudong, Shanghai 200120Telephone 86 137 0177 4638 Facsimile 86 21 5888 1629 E-mail glorymasteronline.sh.cnEgypt. ICAO Regional Director, Middle East Office, Egyptian Civil Aviation Complex, Cairo Airport Road, Heliopolis, Cairo 11776Telephone 20 2 267 4840 Facsimile 20 2 267 4843 Sitatex CAICAYA E-mail icaoidsc.net.egFrance. Directeur rgional de lOACI, Bureau Europe et Atlantique Nord, 3 bis, villa mile-Bergerat, 92522 Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex Tlphone 33 1 46 41 85 85 Fax 33 1 46 41 85 00 Sitatex PAREUYA Courriel icaoeurnatparis.icao.intGermany. UNO-Verlag GmbH, Am Hofgarten 10, D-53113 Bonn / Telephone 49 0 2 28-9 49 0 20 Facsimile 49 0 2 28-9 49 02 22E-mailinfouno-verlag.de World Wide Web http//www.uno-verlag.deIndia. Oxford Book and Stationery Co., Scindia House, New Delhi 110001 or 17 Park Street, Calcutta 700016Telephone 91 11 331-5896 Facsimile 91 11 332-2639Japan. Japan Civil Aviation Promotion Foundation, 15-12, 1-chome, Toranomon, Minato-Ku, TokyoTelephone 81 3 3503-2686 Facsimile 81 3 3503-2689Kenya. ICAO Regional Director, Eastern and Southern African Office, United Nations Accommodation, P.O. Box 46294, Nairobi Telephone 254 20 622 395 Facsimile 254 20 623 028 Sitatex NBOCAYA E-mail icaoicao.unon.orgMexico. Director Regional de la OACI, Oficina Norteamrica, Centroamrica y Caribe, Av. Presidente Masaryk No. 29, 3er Piso,Col. Chapultepec Morales, C.P. 11570, Mxico D.F. / Telfono 52 55 52 50 32 11 Facsmile 52 55 52 03 27 57 Correo-e icaonaccmexico.icao.intNigeria. Landover Company, P.O. Box 3165, Ikeja, LagosTelephone 234 1 4979780 Facsimile 234 1 4979788 Sitatex LOSLORK E-mail aviationlandovercompany.comPeru. Director Regional de la OACI, Oficina Sudamrica, Apartado 4127, Lima 100Telfono 51 1 575 1646 Facsmile 51 1 575 0974 Sitatex LIMCAYA Correo-e maillima.icao.intRussian Federation. Aviaizdat, 48, Ivan Franko Street, Moscow 121351 / Telephone 7 095 417-0405 Facsimile 7 095 417-0254Senegal. Directeur rgional de lOACI, Bureau Afrique occidentale et centrale, Bote postale 2356, DakarTlphone 221 839 9393 Fax 221 823 6926 Sitatex DKRCAYA Courriel icaodkricao.snSlovakia. Air Traffic Services of the Slovak Republic, Letov prevdzkov sluzby Slovenskej Republiky, State Enterprise, Letisko M.R. Stefnika, 823 07 Bratislava 21 / Telephone 421 7 4857 1111 Facsimile 421 7 4857 2105South Africa. Avex Air Training Pty Ltd., Private Bag X102, Halfway House, 1685, JohannesburgTelephone 27 11 315-0003/4 Facsimile 27 11 805-3649 E-mail avexiafrica.comSpain. A.E.N.A. Aeropuertos Espaoles y Navegacin Area, Calle Juan Ignacio Luca de Tena, 14, Planta Tercera, Despacho 3. 11,28027 Madrid / Telfono34 91 321-3148 Facsmile 34 91 321-3157 Correo-e sscc.ventasoaciaena.esSwitzerland. Adeco-Editions van Diermen, Attn Mr. Martin Richard Van Diermen, Chemin du Lacuez 41, CH-1807 BlonayTelephone 41 021 943 2673 Facsimile 41 021 943 3605 E-mail mvandiermenadeco.orgThailand. ICAO Regional Director, Asia and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 11, Samyaek Ladprao, Bangkok 10901Telephone 66 2 537 8189 Facsimile 66 2 537 8199 Sitatex BKKCAYA E-mail icaoapacbangkok.icao.intUnited Kingdom. Airplan Flight Equipment Ltd. AFE, 1a Ringway Trading Estate, Shadowmoss Road, Manchester M22 5LHTelephone 44 161 499 0023 Facsimile 44 161 499 0298 E-mail enquiriesafeonline.com World Wide Web http//www.afeonline.comCatalogue of ICAO Publicationsand Audio-visual Training AidsIssued annually, the Catalogue lists all publications and audio-visual training aids currently available.Monthly supplements announce new publications and audio-visual training aids, amendments, supplements, reprints, etc.Available free from the Document Sales Unit, ICAO.3/04Published in English only by the International Civil Aviation Organization. All correspondence, except orders andsubscriptions, should be addressed to the Secretary General.

REPORT OF THEASIA/PACIFIC AREA TRAFFIC FORECASTING GROUP APA TFGTWELFTH MEETINGBANGKOK, 23 TO 30 JULY 2004Includes Forecasts of Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific Traffic to the Year 2020 Forecasts for Major City-Pairs of Intra-Asia/Pacific and Transpacific to the Year 2007 Analysis of FIR Data

TABLE OF CONTENTSPageSummary......................................................................iiiIntroduction.................................................................... 1Trans Pacific Traffic Trends and Forecasts............................................ 2Geographical Scope....................................................... 2Historical Traffic by Region of Airline Registration.............................. 2Historical Transpacific Traffic............................................... 4Factors Affecting Demand for Air Travel...................................... 9Forecast Methodology.....................................................12Forecasts of GDP and Yield Scenarios........................................ 13Passenger Forecast........................................................14Forecast Comparisons......................................................17Aircraft Movement Forecast.................................................18Analysis of Sample Week Traffic Historical and Forecast........................21Intra Asia/Pacific traffic Trends and Forecasts.........................................23Geographical Scope.......................................................23Passenger Traffic.........................................................23Forecast Scenarios........................................................25Passenger Forecast........................................................27Forecast Comparisons......................................................27Aircraft Movement Forecast.................................................28Major City-Pairs within Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific..............................31Scope and Methodology....................................................31Passenger Forecast........................................................31Asia/Pacific Aircraft Movements...................................................34Tokyo/Naha FIR Traffic....................................................34Tokyo/Naha FIR City-Pairs.................................................34Bangkok FIR City-Pairs....................................................39Hong Kong FIR City-Pairs..................................................41Australian FIR City-Pairs...................................................44Appendix A List of Attendees - APA TFG/12........................................46Appendix B Routes and Peak Hour Movements.......................................49Appendix C Transpacific Traffic Route Area Codes...................................55Appendix D Transpacific Traffic Aircraft Classes....................................56Appendix E ICAO Statistical Regions..............................................57ii

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