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Doc 9961. Издание 1

Документ обновлён на дату:01.01.2011

Asia/Pacific Area Traffic Forecasts 2010-2030

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REPORT OF THE ASIA/PACIFIC AREA TRAFFIC FORECASTING GROUP APA TFG FIFTEENTH MEETING BANGKOK, 1 - 8 NOVEMBER 2010 Includes Forecasts of Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific Traffic to the Year 2030 Forecasts for Major City-Pairs of Intra-Asia/Pacific and Transpacific to the Year 2014 Analysis of FIR Data

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Summary .............................................................................................................................................. iii Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Factors Affecting Demand for Air Travel and Traffic Trends ............................................................. 3 Transpacific Traffic Trends and Forecasts ........................................................................................... 5 Geographical Scope ................................................................................................................ 5 Historical Transpacific Traffic ............................................................................................... 5 Regional Economic and Yield Developments ....................................................................... 8 Forecast Methodology ............................................................................................................ 10 Forecast of GDP and Yield Scenarios..................................................................................... 11 Passenger Forecast .................................................................................................................. 12 Aircraft Movement Forecast ................................................................................................... 14 Analysis of Sample Week Traffic - Historical and Forecast................................................... 17 Intra-Asia/Pacific Traffic Trends and Forecasts .................................................................................. 20 Geographical Scope ................................................................................................................ 20 Historical Passenger Traffic .................................................................................................... 20 Forecast Methodology ............................................................................................................ 20 Forecast of GDP and Yield Scenarios..................................................................................... 22 Passenger Forecast .................................................................................................................. 22 Aircraft Movement Forecast ................................................................................................... 24 Selected Major City-Pairs within Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific ................................................ 27 Scope and Methodology ......................................................................................................... 27 Passenger Forecast .................................................................................................................. 27 Asia/Pacific Aircraft Movements Peak Period .................................................................................. 30 Fukuoka FIR Traffic ............................................................................................................... 30 Fukuoka FIR City-Pairs .......................................................................................................... 30 Bangkok FIR City-Pairs .......................................................................................................... 34 Hong Kong FIR City-Pairs ..................................................................................................... 38 Appendix A List of Attendees, APA TFG/15 .................................................................................... 40 Appendix B Routes and Peak-Hour Movements ............................................................................... 43 Appendix C Transpacific Traffic Route Area Codes ........................................................................ 51 Appendix D ICAO Statistical Regions .............................................................................................. 52 ii

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