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Circular 312
Airline Traffic Forecasts and Financial Trends - 2006 to 2008
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Orders should be sent to one of the following addresses, together with the appropriate remittance by bank draft, cheque or money orderin U.S. dollars or the currency of the country in which the order is placed. Credit card orders American Express, MasterCard and Visaare accepted at ICAO Headquarters.International Civil Aviation Organization. Attention Document Sales Unit, 999 University Street, Montral, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7Telephone 1 514 954-8022 Facsimile 1 514 954-6769 Sitatex YULCAYA E-mail salesicao.intWorld Wide Web http//www.icao.intCameroon. KnowHow, 1, Rue de la Chambre de Commerce-Bonanjo, B.P. 4676, Douala / Telephone 237 343 98 42 Facsimile2373438925 E-mail knowhowdocyahoo.frChina. Glory Master International Limited, Room 434B, Hongshen Trade Centre, 428 Dong Fang Road, Pudong, Shanghai 200120Telephone 86 137 0177 4638 Facsimile 86 21 5888 1629 E-mail glorymasteronline.sh.cnEgypt. ICAO Regional Director, Middle East Office, Egyptian Civil Aviation Complex, Cairo Airport Road, Heliopolis, Cairo 11776Telephone 20 2 267 4840 Facsimile 20 2 267 4843 Sitatex CAICAYA E-mail icaomidcairo.icao.intGermany. UNO-Verlag GmbH, August-Bebel-Allee 6, 53175 Bonn / Telephone 49 0 228-94 90 2-0 Facsimile 49 0 228-94 90 2-22E-mailinfouno-verlag.de World Wide Web http//www.uno-verlag.deIndia. Oxford Book and Stationery Co., Scindia House, New Delhi 110001 or 17 Park Street, Calcutta 700016Telephone 91 11 331-5896 Facsimile 91 11 51514284India. Sterling Book House SBH, 181, Dr. D. N. Road, Fort, Bombay 400001Telephone 91 22 2261 2521, 2265 9599 Facsimile 91 22 2262 3551 E-mail sbhvsnl.comJapan. Japan Civil Aviation Promotion Foundation, 15-12, 1-chome, Toranomon, Minato-Ku, TokyoTelephone 81 3 3503-2686 Facsimile 81 3 3503-2689Kenya. ICAO Regional Director, Eastern and Southern African Office, United Nations Accommodation, P.O. Box 46294, Nairobi Telephone 254 20 7622 395 Facsimile 254 20 7623 028 Sitatex NBOCAYA E-mail icaoicao.unon.orgMexico. Director Regional de la OACI, Oficina Norteamrica, Centroamrica y Caribe, Av. Presidente Masaryk No. 29, 3er Piso,Col. Chapultepec Morales, C.P. 11570, Mxico D.F. / Telfono 52 55 52 50 32 11 Facsmile 52 55 52 03 27 57 Correo-e icaonaccmexico.icao.intNigeria. Landover Company, P.O. Box 3165, Ikeja, LagosTelephone 234 1 4979780 Facsimile 234 1 4979788 Sitatex LOSLORK E-mail aviationlandovercompany.comPeru. Director Regional de la OACI, Oficina Sudamrica, Apartado 4127, Lima 100Telfono 51 1 575 1646 Facsmile 51 1 575 0974 Sitatex LIMCAYA Correo-e maillima.icao.intRussian Federation. Aviaizdat, 48, Ivan Franko Street, Moscow 121351 / Telephone 7 095 417-0405 Facsimile 7 095 417-0254Senegal. Directeur rgional de lOACI, Bureau Afrique occidentale et centrale, Bote postale 2356, DakarTlphone 221 839 9393 Fax 221 823 6926 Sitatex DKRCAYA Courriel icaodkricao.snSlovakia. Air Traffic Services of the Slovak Republic, Letov prevdzkov sluzby Slovenskej Republiky, State Enterprise, Letisko M.R. Stefnika, 823 07 Bratislava 21 / Telephone 421 7 4857 1111 Facsimile 421 7 4857 2105South Africa. Avex Air Training Pty Ltd., Private Bag X102, Halfway House, 1685, JohannesburgTelephone 27 11 315-0003/4 Facsimile 27 11 805-3649 E-mail avexiafrica.comSpain. A.E.N.A. Aeropuertos Espaoles y Navegacin Area, Calle Juan Ignacio Luca de Tena, 14, Planta Tercera, Despacho 3. 11,28027 Madrid / Telfono34 91 321-3148 Facsmile 34 91 321-3157 Correo-e sscc.ventasoaciaena.esSwitzerland. Adeco-Editions van Diermen, Attn Mr. Martin Richard Van Diermen, Chemin du Lacuez 41, CH-1807 BlonayTelephone 41 021 943 2673 Facsimile 41 021 943 3605 E-mail mvandiermenadeco.orgThailand. ICAO Regional Director, Asia and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 11, Samyaek Ladprao, Bangkok 10901Telephone 66 2 537 8189 Facsimile 66 2 537 8199 Sitatex BKKCAYA E-mail icaoapacbangkok.icao.intUnited Kingdom. Airplan Flight Equipment Ltd. AFE, 1a Ringway Trading Estate, Shadowmoss Road, Manchester M22 5LHTelephone 44 161 499 0023 Facsimile 44 161 499 0298 E-mail enquiriesafeonline.com World Wide Web http//www.afeonline.comCatalogue of ICAO Publicationsand Audio-visual Training AidsIssued annually, the Catalogue lists all publications and audio-visual training aids currently available. Supplements to the Catalogue announce new publications and audio-visual training aids, amendments, supplements, reprints, etc.Available free from the Document Sales Unit, ICAO.2/06Published in separate English, Arabic, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the International Civil AviationOrganization. All correspondence, except orders and subscriptions, should be addressed to the Secretary General.
i FOREWORD INTRODUCTION 1. This circular, Airline Traffic Forecasts and Financial Trends 2006 to 2008, analyses trends in airline traffic and financial results over the 19952005 period along with factors underlying air traffic demand and presents medium-term global and regional forecasts of scheduled passenger traffic and basic global airline financial trends through to 2008. SOURCES 2. A dedicated ICAO aviation statistics website www.icaodata.com is the main source of airline traffic and financial statistics. In addition to the website, sources of information include relevant and most recently available statistical publications of the United Nations UN, BACK Aviation Solutions fleet and airline schedule databases, the Air Transport Association ATA, the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines AAPA, the Association of European Airlines AEA, the International Air Transport Association IATA, the International Monetary Fund IMF, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, the United States Department of Energy DOE and the World Bank WB. 3. The statistical data for 2005 appearing in this circular are to be considered as preliminary experience shows that the margin of error for world totals is probably less than 2 per cent, except in the case of operational results where it may be considerably higher. 4. Unless otherwise noted a all statistical data are applicable to ICAO Contracting States 189 at the end of 2005 b regional breakdowns are by ICAO statistical region c traffic statistics are for scheduled services of commercial air carriers d total airline financial statistics relate to commercial air carriers with scheduled as well as non-scheduled operations e the expression tonne-kilometre means metric tonne-kilometre f the word billion means one thousand million and g all references to monetary units made in this circular mean United States U.S. cents for cents and U.S. dollars for . STATUS 5. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his authority.
ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter 1. Trends in airline traffic and financial results............................................................... 1-1 Airline traffic world........................................................................................................................ 1-1 Airline traffic regions of airline registration................................................................................... 1-1 Airline financial results world........................................................................................................ 1-4 Airline financial results regions of airline registration................................................................... 1-6 Chapter 2. Trends in factors underlying air traffic demand......................................................... 2-1 Global and regional economic and demographic trends............................................................... 2-1 Airline productivity, input prices, financial performance and airline passenger yields............................................................................................................. 2-7 Chapter 3. Forecast methodology and main assumptions........................................................... 3-1 Chapter 4. Airline traffic and financial forecasts........................................................................... 4-1 Airline traffic forecasts................................................................................................................... 4-1 Global........................................................................................................................................ 4-1 Regions of airline registration.................................................................................................... 4-1 Global airline financial forecast...................................................................................................... 4-3 Appendix. Methodology for traffic forecasts................................................................................. A-1 TABLES Table 1-1 Total international and domestic revenue traffic World 1995-2005 scheduled services of airlines of ICAO Contracting States....................................... 1-2 Table 1-2 International revenue traffic World 1995-2005 scheduled services of airlines of ICAO Contracting States....................................... 1-2 Table 1-3 Regional distribution of international and domestic traffic 2005 passenger-kilometres performed............................................................................... 1-5 Table 1-4 Operating and net results World 1995-2005 scheduled airlines of ICAO Contracting States......................................................... 1-5 Table 3-1 Economic growth GDP by region real average annual growth rates, per cent............................................................... 3-2 Table 4-1 ICAO scheduled passenger traffic forecasts World and regions 2006-2008 passenger-kilometres performed.......................................................... 4-2
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Table Of Contents
COVER PAGE
FOREWORD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Appendix