Circular 319. Edition 1
Last modified:1/1/2009
A unified framework for collision risk modelling in support of the manual on airspace planning methodology with further applications
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Published in separate English, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION 999 University Street, Montral, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7 For ordering information and for a complete listing of sales agents and booksellers, please go to the ICAO website at www.icao.int ICAO Cir 319, A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima Doc 9869 Order Number CIR319 ISBN 978-92-9231-428-6 ICAO 2009 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the International Civil Aviation Organization.
iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ............................................................................................................................................................ v Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2. Background .................................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Conservative risk assessment .............................................................................................................. 2 2.2 Features common to the CRMs used in ICAO documentation ........................................................... 2 2.3 Route networks ................................................................................................................................... 3 2.4 Representation of aircraft .................................................................................................................... 4 2.5 Separation criteria ............................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 3. Modelling of the uncertainty associated with aircraft location .................................................. 7 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Stationary and non-stationary cases .................................................................................................... 7 3.3 Application of extreme value theory to the modelling of atypical large deviations ............................ 8 3.4 Distinction between typical and atypical deviations in current ICAO documentation........................ 12 3.5 Determination of the distribution of atypical errors ............................................................................ 12 3.6 Extending the modelling of operational risk from the air traffic controllers viewpoint ............... 14 Chapter 4. The Rice formula............................................................................................................................ 17 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 Preliminary concepts ........................................................................................................................... 17 4.3 Illustration of a simple case ................................................................................................................ 19 4.4 Generalization to three dimensions ..................................................................................................... 20 4.5 Application to random processes ........................................................................................................ 20 4.6 Probability of the process entering during ta,tb ............................................................................. 23 Chapter 5. Lateral collision risk modelling for aircraft on parallel routes .................................................. 26 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 26 5.2 Notation and assumptions ................................................................................................................... 26 5.3 Derivation of the probability of collision during a longitudinal overlap ............................................. 28 5.4 Risk assessment based on the proportion of time in longitudinal overlap .......................................... 33 5.5 Risk assessment based on the frequency of passing events ................................................................ 36
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Doc 4444. Edition 16. Procedures For Air Navigation Services. Air Traffic ManagementDoc 9574. Edition 3. Manual on a 300 m (1 000 ft) Vertical Separation Minimum Between FL 290 and FL 410 InclusiveDoc 9689. Edition 1. Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation MinimaDoc 9869. Edition 2. Performance-Based Communication and Surveillance (PBCS) ManualВСЕ ДОКУМЕНТЫALL DOCUMENTSICAO CIRCULASЦИРКУЛЯРЫCircular 319
Table Of Contents
COVER PAGE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10