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i FOREWORD Introduction 1. This circular contains information on air transport trends and challenges and long-term airline passenger and freight traffic forecasts, in total and by region of airline registration, for the period through to the year 2025. In addition, it includes traffic forecasts for international route groups and global forecasts of aircraft movements, again through to the year 2025. The present circular is the sixth in a series issued biennially or triennially the previous edition Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 was published in 2004 as Circular 304. Sources of information 2. In addition to the ICAO Digests of Statistics, use has been made of many of the Organizations economic studies and of the Annual Reports of the Council to the Assembly. Sources of information other than ICAO, referred to in the circular, include the appropriate and most recently available statistical publications of the United Nations, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD, the European Civil Aviation Conference ECAC, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, the International Air Transport Association IATA, the Association of European Airlines AEA, the United States Department of Transportation DOT and Department of Energy DOE, the World Tourism Organization UNWTO, the International Monetary Fund IMF, the World Bank, BACK Aviation Solutions and aerospace manufacturers. 3. Unless indicated otherwise, all references in this circular to cents mean U.S. cents, and all references to dollars mean U.S. dollars references to billion mean one thousand million. Status 4. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his authority.
iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter 1. Summary................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2. Air Transport Trends and Challenges................................................................................. 5 Economic development and airline traffic patterns............................................................................... 5 Trends in scheduled passenger, freight and mail traffic........................................................................ 6 International and domestic traffic.................................................................................................. 7 Regional distribution of scheduled international traffic................................................................. 8 Passenger traffic on major intercontinental route groups............................................................... 9 Trends in non-scheduled passenger traffic............................................................................................ 9 Aircraft movements............................................................................................................................... 10 Fleet composition and productivity....................................................................................................... 11 Relationship between productivity, prices and financial performance................................................. 13 Safety and quality of service................................................................................................................. 15 Airport and airspace congestion............................................................................................................ 16 Environmental protection...................................................................................................................... 17 Financial resources................................................................................................................................ 17 Economic regulation............................................................................................................................. 18 Industry structure.................................................................................................................................. 19 Product distribution........................................................................................................................ 20 Alliances and airline cooperation................................................................................................... 20 Airline business models................................................................................................................. 20 Privatization, national consolidation and transnational ownership................................................ 21 Chapter 3. World Economic Environment............................................................................................. 22 Historical trends.................................................................................................................................... 22 Outlook................................................................................................................................................. 23 Chapter 4. Airline Financial Trends....................................................................................................... 24 Operating revenues, expenses and results............................................................................................. 24 Global trends.................................................................................................................................. 24 Yields and unit costs...................................................................................................................... 28 Operating revenues and expenses by category and region............................................................. 29 Outlook................................................................................................................................................. 32 Chapter 5. Forecasts of Airline Traffic to the Year 2025...................................................................... 33 Forecasting methodology...................................................................................................................... 33 Main assumptions and econometric models......................................................................................... 33 Global passenger forecasts.................................................................................................................... 34 Regional passenger forecasts................................................................................................................ 36 Passenger forecasts by route group....................................................................................................... 37 Global freight forecasts......................................................................................................................... 37 Regional freight forecasts..................................................................................................................... 40 Accuracy of previous forecasts............................................................................................................. 41 Summary of air traffic forecasts by other organizations....................................................................... 41
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Annex 9. Edition 16. FacilitationAnnex 16. Vol 2. Edition 5. Environmental Protection. Volume II. Aircraft Engine EmissionsAnnex 17. Edition 12. Aviation Security. Safeguarding International Civil Aviation against Acts of Unlawful InterferenceCircular 304. Edition 1. Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015ВСЕ ДОКУМЕНТЫALL DOCUMENTSICAO CIRCULASЦИРКУЛЯРЫ
Table Of Contents
COVER PAGE
FOREWORD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Appendix 1
Appendix 2