Language
RUEN
ES
FR
AR
CH
Login
RUEN
ES
FR
AR
CH
Circular 313
Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2025
Buy access
INFO
Text
Editions
Modifications
Links To
Links From
In Catalogs
search
Orders should be sent to one of the following addresses, together with the appropriate remittance in U.S. dollars or in the currency of thecountry in which the order is placed. Customers are encouraged to use credit cards MasterCard, Visa or American Express to avoiddelivery delays. Information on payment by credit card and by other methods is available in the Ordering Information Section of theCatalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids.International Civil Aviation Organization. Attention Document Sales Unit, 999 University Street, Montral, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7Telephone 1 514-954-8022 Facsimile 1 514-954-6769 Sitatex YULCAYA E-mail salesicao.intWorld Wide Web http//www.icao.intCameroon. KnowHow, 1, Rue de la Chambre de Commerce-Bonanjo, B.P. 4676, Douala / Telephone 237 343 98 42 Facsimile2373438925 E-mail knowhowdocyahoo.frChina. Glory Master International Limited, Room 434B, Hongshen Trade Centre, 428 Dong Fang Road, Pudong, Shanghai 200120Telephone 86 137 0177 4638 Facsimile 86 21 5888 1629 E-mail glorymasteronline.sh.cnEgypt. ICAO Regional Director, Middle East Office, Egyptian Civil Aviation Complex, Cairo Airport Road, Heliopolis, Cairo 11776Telephone 20 2 267 4840 Facsimile 20 2 267 4843 Sitatex CAICAYA E-mail icaomidcairo.icao.intGermany. UNO-Verlag GmbH, August-Bebel-Allee 6, 53175 Bonn / Telephone 49 0 228-94 90 2-0 Facsimile 49 0 228-94 90 2-22E-mailinfouno-verlag.de World Wide Web http//www.uno-verlag.deIndia. Oxford Book and Stationery Co., 57, Medha Apartments, Mayur Vihar, Phase-1, New Delhi 110 091Telephone 91 11 65659897 Facsimile 91 11 22743532India. Sterling Book House SBH, 181, Dr. D. N. Road, Fort, Bombay 400001Telephone 91 22 2261 2521, 2265 9599 Facsimile 91 22 2262 3551 E-mail sbhvsnl.comIndia. The English Book Store, 17-L Connaught Circus, New Delhi 110001Telephone 91 11 2341-7936, 2341-7126 Facsimile 91 11 2341-7731 E-mail ebsvsnl.comJapan. Japan Civil Aviation Promotion Foundation, 15-12, 1-chome, Toranomon, Minato-Ku, TokyoTelephone 81 3 3503-2686 Facsimile 81 3 3503-2689Kenya. ICAO Regional Director, Eastern and Southern African Office, United Nations Accommodation, P.O. Box 46294, Nairobi Telephone 254 20 7622 395 Facsimile 254 20 7623 028 Sitatex NBOCAYA E-mail icaoicao.unon.orgMexico. Director Regional de la OACI, Oficina Norteamrica, Centroamrica y Caribe, Av. Presidente Masaryk No. 29, 3er Piso,Col. Chapultepec Morales, C.P. 11570, Mxico D.F. / Telfono 52 55 52 50 32 11 Facsmile 52 55 52 03 27 57 Correo-e icaonaccmexico.icao.intNigeria. Landover Company, P.O. Box 3165, Ikeja, LagosTelephone 234 1 4979780 Facsimile 234 1 4979788 Sitatex LOSLORK E-mail aviationlandovercompany.comPeru. Director Regional de la OACI, Oficina Sudamrica, Av. Vctor Andrs Belande No. 147, San Isidro, Lima Centro Empresarial Real,Va Principal No. 102, Edificio Real 4, Floor 4Telfono 51 1 611 8686 Facsmile 51 1 611 8689 Correo-e maillima.icao.intRussian Federation. Aviaizdat, 48, Ivan Franko Street, Moscow 121351 / Telephone 7 095 417-0405 Facsimile 7 095 417-0254Senegal. Directeur rgional de lOACI, Bureau Afrique occidentale et centrale, Bote postale 2356, DakarTlphone 221 839 9393 Fax 221 823 6926 Sitatex DKRCAYA Courriel icaodkricao.snSlovakia. Air Traffic Services of the Slovak Republic, Letov prevdzkov sluby Slovenskej Republiky, State Enterprise, Letisko M.R. tefnika, 823 07 Bratislava 21 / Telephone 421 2 4857 1111 Facsimile 421 2 4857 2105 E-mail sa.icaolps.skSouth Africa. Avex Air Training Pty Ltd., Private Bag X102, Halfway House, 1685, JohannesburgTelephone 27 11 315-0003/4 Facsimile 27 11 805-3649 E-mail avexiafrica.comSpain. A.E.N.A. Aeropuertos Espaoles y Navegacin Area, Calle Juan Ignacio Luca de Tena, 14, Planta Tercera, Despacho 3. 11,28027 Madrid / Telfono 34 91 321-3148 Facsmile 34 91 321-3157 Correo-e sscc.ventasoaciaena.esSwitzerland. Adeco-Editions van Diermen, Attn Mr. Martin Richard Van Diermen, Chemin du Lacuez 41, CH-1807 BlonayTelephone 41 021 943 2673 Facsimile 41 021 943 3605 E-mail mvandiermenadeco.orgThailand. ICAO Regional Director, Asia and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 11, Samyaek Ladprao, Bangkok 10901Telephone 66 2 537 8189 Facsimile 66 2 537 8199 Sitatex BKKCAYA E-mail icaoapacbangkok.icao.intUnited Kingdom. Airplan Flight Equipment Ltd. AFE, 1a Ringway Trading Estate, Shadowmoss Road, Manchester M22 5LHTelephone 44 161 499 0023 Facsimile 44 161 499 0298 E-mail enquiriesafeonline.com World Wide Web http//www.afeonline.comCatalogue of ICAO Publicationsand Audio-visual Training AidsIssued annually, the Catalogue lists all publications and audio-visual training aids currently available. Supplements to the Catalogue announce new publications and audio-visual training aids, amendments, supplements, reprints, etc.Available free from the Document Sales Unit, ICAO.5/07Published in separate English, Arabic, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the International Civil AviationOrganization. All correspondence, except orders and subscriptions, should be addressed to the Secretary General.
i FOREWORD Introduction 1. This circular contains information on air transport trends and challenges and long-term airline passenger and freight traffic forecasts, in total and by region of airline registration, for the period through to the year 2025. In addition, it includes traffic forecasts for international route groups and global forecasts of aircraft movements, again through to the year 2025. The present circular is the sixth in a series issued biennially or triennially the previous edition Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 was published in 2004 as Circular 304. Sources of information 2. In addition to the ICAO Digests of Statistics, use has been made of many of the Organizations economic studies and of the Annual Reports of the Council to the Assembly. Sources of information other than ICAO, referred to in the circular, include the appropriate and most recently available statistical publications of the United Nations, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD, the European Civil Aviation Conference ECAC, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, the International Air Transport Association IATA, the Association of European Airlines AEA, the United States Department of Transportation DOT and Department of Energy DOE, the World Tourism Organization UNWTO, the International Monetary Fund IMF, the World Bank, BACK Aviation Solutions and aerospace manufacturers. 3. Unless indicated otherwise, all references in this circular to cents mean U.S. cents, and all references to dollars mean U.S. dollars references to billion mean one thousand million. Status 4. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his authority.
iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter 1. Summary................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2. Air Transport Trends and Challenges................................................................................. 5 Economic development and airline traffic patterns............................................................................... 5 Trends in scheduled passenger, freight and mail traffic........................................................................ 6 International and domestic traffic.................................................................................................. 7 Regional distribution of scheduled international traffic................................................................. 8 Passenger traffic on major intercontinental route groups............................................................... 9 Trends in non-scheduled passenger traffic............................................................................................ 9 Aircraft movements............................................................................................................................... 10 Fleet composition and productivity....................................................................................................... 11 Relationship between productivity, prices and financial performance................................................. 13 Safety and quality of service................................................................................................................. 15 Airport and airspace congestion............................................................................................................ 16 Environmental protection...................................................................................................................... 17 Financial resources................................................................................................................................ 17 Economic regulation............................................................................................................................. 18 Industry structure.................................................................................................................................. 19 Product distribution........................................................................................................................ 20 Alliances and airline cooperation................................................................................................... 20 Airline business models................................................................................................................. 20 Privatization, national consolidation and transnational ownership................................................ 21 Chapter 3. World Economic Environment............................................................................................. 22 Historical trends.................................................................................................................................... 22 Outlook................................................................................................................................................. 23 Chapter 4. Airline Financial Trends....................................................................................................... 24 Operating revenues, expenses and results............................................................................................. 24 Global trends.................................................................................................................................. 24 Yields and unit costs...................................................................................................................... 28 Operating revenues and expenses by category and region............................................................. 29 Outlook................................................................................................................................................. 32 Chapter 5. Forecasts of Airline Traffic to the Year 2025...................................................................... 33 Forecasting methodology...................................................................................................................... 33 Main assumptions and econometric models......................................................................................... 33 Global passenger forecasts.................................................................................................................... 34 Regional passenger forecasts................................................................................................................ 36 Passenger forecasts by route group....................................................................................................... 37 Global freight forecasts......................................................................................................................... 37 Regional freight forecasts..................................................................................................................... 40 Accuracy of previous forecasts............................................................................................................. 41 Summary of air traffic forecasts by other organizations....................................................................... 41
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
EXAMPLETo access full book mail to icao@standart.aero or login
Table Of Contents
COVER PAGE
FOREWORD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Appendix 1
Appendix 2