Doc 8991. Edition 3
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Manual on Air Traffic Forecasting
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International Civil Aviation OrganizationApproved by the Secretary Generaland published under his authorityManual on Air TrafficForecastingThird Edition 2006Doc 8991AT/722/3
AMENDMENTSThe issue of amendments is announced regularly in the ICAO Journal and in thesupplements to the Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual TrainingAids, which holders of this publication should consult. The space below is providedto keep a record of such amendments.RECORD OF AMENDMENTS AND CORRIGENDAAMENDMENTSCORRIGENDANo.DateEntered byNo.DateEntered byii
iii FOREWORD 1. The work of the Organization in the field of air traffic forecasting is governed by Appendix C of Assembly Resolution A35-18 Consolidated statement of continuing ICAO policies in the air transport field Appendix C Forecasting and Economic Planning Whereas Contracting States require global and regional forecasts of future civil aviation developments for various purposes Whereas the Council, in carrying out its continuing functions in the economic field, must foresee future developments likely to require action by the Organization and must initiate such action in good time and Whereas the Organization requires specific forecasts and economic support for airports and air navigation systems planning and environmental planning purposes The Assembly 1. Requests the Council to prepare and maintain, as necessary, long-term and medium-term forecasts of future trends and developments in civil aviation of both a general and a specific kind, including, where possible, regional as well as global data, and to make these available to Contracting States 2. Requests the Council to develop methodologies and procedures for the preparation of forecasts, the analysis of cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness, and the development of business cases, to meet the needs of the regional air navigation planning groups and, as required, other systems or environmental planning bodies of the Organization and 3. Requests the Council to make arrangements to collect and develop material on current forecasting methods both for the purposes described in clauses 1 and 2 and for dissemination to Contracting States from time to time as guidance in their own forecasting and economic planning. 2. This manual represents a partial fulfilment of the requirement set out in the third resolving clause to collect and develop material on current forecasting methods for dissemination to Contracting States from time to time as guidance in their own forecasting and economic planning. The first edition of this manual was published in 1972. The second edition, published in 1985, took into account additional material received by ICAO and experience gained during the intervening period. This third edition takes into account new material developed by ICAO and additional experience gained since 1985. 3. This manual is addressed to civil aviation administration personnel, airline planners, planners of airports and air navigation systems and others actively engaged in practical forecasting work. It provides a survey of techniques currently used for air traffic forecasting, and practical guidance on the application of these techniques. The advantages and disadvantages of the techniques as well as the criteria for selection of a particular technique for the forecast concerned are discussed. These techniques can vary considerably in their usefulness and sophistication. 4. The manual is divided into three parts. Part I presents the techniques that are available for air traffic forecasting purposes. These are classified into three broad categories quantitative, qualitative and
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