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Circular 73
A Review of the Economic Situation of Air Transport
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ICAO CIRCULAR 73 -AT/O CIRCULAR JUNE 1965 A REVIEW OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF AIR TRANSPORT with Special Reference to the Economic Effects of the Long-range Jets and the Possible Future Market for Supersonic Aircraft Prepared by the Secretariat and published by authority of the Secretary General for the informatian of Contracting States INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGAN1ZATION MONTREAL .I CANADA
Published in separate English, French and Spanish editbw by the Intctnntictd Ctoil Aviaticm Otganiurt.ton. All corteondence, clcept ordets and subscn'ptions, should he oridressed to the Secretary Gcncral of ICAO, Infmtional Avidion Building, 1080 University Street, Nonired 3 Quebec, Canada Cfrdors t'or thrs publtcaticln should be scnt to one of the fhllowing tldcfrcsscs, together tith the rtpprcrpriate remittintc thy bank draft or post occ money rrder tri t1.S. dolfars or the currency of the country in which the order is piaced ur in a freely cuntertible currency Regional Oflicta Sates Agencies fiance ReprCsentant de 1'OACI, Bureau Ar ent ina Editorial Sudamericana S.A., Europe, 60 bh, avenue d'Ikna, Paris, XVP. Ca I e Alsina 500, Buenos hires. Peru Representante de la OACI, Ofieina Auetrrtia Robertsan and Mdens, 107 Eli- SudamCrica, Apartado 4127, Lima, zabeth Street, Melbourne, C. 1. Senegal Kcpri.sr.ntitnt dc I'OAC'I. Burcuu Canada Department of Public Printing ,4friy\tt.. Ilaite posaIt' t3Sh. Dakar. and Stationety, Ottawa Oatado. Thailand XCAO Representative, Far East India Oxford Book Stationery Co., and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 614, Bangkok. Scindia House, New Dew or 17 Park Stret, Calcutta. United Arab Republic ICAO Represen- tative, Middle East OfZce, 18 Hassan Sabri, Mexico Editorial Hennes .A, Ignacio Zamalek, Cairo. Mariscat 41, MCrdco 4, R.F. New Zealand Government Printer, Govern- ment Printing CHEce, 20 Molesworth Street, Wellington. United Kingdom Her Majcsty" Stationery Office, P.O. .Box 569, London, S.E. 1, International Civif Aviation Organizatfon Attention Distribution OScer, fnternational Aviation Building, lO8O University Street, Montreal 3 Quebec, Canada. Do w rou receive the ICAO BULLETIN The ICAO Bulletin contains o cencise uccwnt of the activities of the Orgonizotion or well m oricler of interest to fhe aero- nautical worid. The Bulletin wiN also keep you up to date on the Ides lCAO publications, their contents, amendments, supplements, corri- genda, and prices. Arailable in fhrcrs seporafs edifions English, French and Spanish. Annual svbicripfion US. 2.00.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION ........................ 1 Terms of reference ..............em.,. 1 Statistical coverage ................... 2 References ........................ 3 SUMMARY ........................... 5 The economic situation of air transport in 1965 ...... 5 Improved operating margin ............. 5 Decline in operating costs ....me...... 5 ................. Falling load factors 5 Economic effects of the introduction of subsonic jets . . 5 Importance of jets .................. 5 Differentiating characteristics of jets . . . . . 6 ............ Effects of jet characteristics 6 High productivity ................... 6 Low operating expenses ............... 7 Future trends in world demand for air transport .... 7 Factors affecting demand .............. 7 Rate trends .................... 8 Traffic trends .................... 8 Future capacity requirements ......... 9 THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF AIR TRANSPORT UP TO1965 ..................em....... 11 f The operating margin .................. 11 Loadfactors ....................... 13 Aircraft size ....................... 14 ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE INTRODUCTION OF SUBSONIC JETS .................... 15 Jetsinservicebefore 1965mainlylong.rangetpes . . 15 Numbers of jets in service and on order ......... 15 Proportions of capacity offered in different categories of aircraft ................. 17
i i LCAO Circular 7 3-AT 11 0 Page Long- range jets used mainly an international services .... 18 Differentiating chaxacteristics of the jete ........... 18 Purchase price ...................... 19 Increased requirements for air navigation facilities. including airpos ...................... 20 Comfort and speed public appeal ............... 20 Mean cruising speed ...................... 20 Payload capacity ........................ 21 Potential productivity .................... 21 Excess capacity ...................... 21 Loadfactors ........................ 23 .................... Aircraft utilization 23 Operating expenses and revre. nuee ............... 25 Direct unit operating expenses .............. 25 Indirect and total -it operating epenses ......... 29 .......... Unit operating revenue8 ., ....... 29 International ind domeatic services ........... 33 Ratio of revenues to expenees ............... 33 .. ............. Recent changes in the general 37 Trench in air transport fares ................. 38 Cargo rate. .......................... 43 Air maif conveyance rates ................... 43 Non- scheduled aperations ................... 43 Trends in air transport volume ................ 44 The effect of different assumptions concerning' the trend of scheduled service passenger fares ............ 47 . Economic position of the long- range jets in 1970 and1975 ............................ 49 Economic situation -f supersonic airliners in 197 2 and 1974 ........................... 50 Notes on Assumptions ..................... 52
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TABLE OF CONTENTS