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Foreword Purpose and scope 1. There is broad consensus in the air wartsport indusby tna the demand fm air travel will recover fm the current recessiom and return to Wtional growth rates into tbe next centuy. ICAO forecasts, which are in line with those of aircraft manufacturers and other institutions, show an increase in demand in tern of the number of passelrgers carried from just under 1.2 billion in 1991 to nearly 2 billion by the year 2000 and about 2-8 billion by the year 2010. 2. ' There is CORC, hwever, about thi continuing ability of airlines and providers of aims and route facilities to find lhe fmancirrg to meet this Waffic demand and at the same time face the investment requirements of such pressing needs as overcoming congesrion problems implementing the global satellite-based communications, navigation and surveillame fCNS and air traffic management Am system introducing 'aicbpme collision avoidance systems meeting environment-related operating restrictions such as those imposed to counter noig and engineemissions replacing aging aircraft and increasing aviation security. The availability of investninient funds from in tenlat and govemrtental sources remains limited, and the air transport industry will have to compete for external funds in rt clha of a potential global credit squeeze as a result of other demands for financing. Particular diffrcules are likely to be encounler in many developing States as a result of national economic conditions and their ability to meet foreign currency obligations. 3. At the same time here are particular benefits to be obtained from investment in air transport because of the impact of this sector on olher sectors of the economy and, indeed, an the economy as a whole. b ddifin h3 generating eoonmic activity in airframe and engine manufacturing as well 8 the provision of airline, airport and air traffic services, air transport is, for example, an integral tool for conducting much of the world's business, a foundation for the tourist industry in itself a major economic sector and a cost-effective means of distributing goods and services. Ihe air transport industry fosters growth in output, added value and employment at rates greater than the economy at large. 4 There is a need to find the necessary financing for air transport investment to ensure that traffic growth and the consequential economic benefits are maintained, and to avoid financial polarization between developed and developing countries and their airlines. This study is designed 10 assist in the sohcitaion of financing by idenrifying the scope of the financing problem, the amounts necessary and possible sources, along with procedures for obtaining finance from these sources. In particular, the study attempts to identify, in broad terms, the investment requirements over the next twenty years a for fleet new4 and expansion which represents the bulk of airline invesltment needs and h for worts and en-route facilities. The resulting estimates are global in nature. Particular needs will vary from airline to airline and caunuy to counw depending oil a wide range of factors and can mly be determined at the level of the individual airline, airport of country concerned. 5. The study was prepared by the ICAO Secretariat in 1991 and is published under the authority of the Secretary General. The study is being distributed to all ICAO Contracting States and to'development agencies, financial institutions and other interested organizations.
iil ICAO Circular 236-A TJ95 Sources 6. The baic sources of information far thstydy were. the-CAO Digests of Statistics, as well as previous ICAO studies such as The Economic Situation of Air Trnsport Circmlar 222, 1989, wbi 3-1 includes details of the Jong-rm foscasrs used in tbe present study and information on Lbe facrors affecting traffic growth, the Econornic lmplicarions of Future Noise Restrictions on Subjonic Jei Aircraft Circular 218,1989 and, in pafiicul, the Airport Economics Manual Doc 9562, 1991. In addition, iafaion,on fum fleet acquisition requirements was obtained from aimaft manufacturn, finattcial instizutioas and aperating l companies, and material an airport and route facility investment plans and financing by. States. .was -acquired through RegiopaI Offices yd .a preparatory questionnaire for the 199 1 ICAQ Conference on Airport and Route Facility Managenlent. However, thm were some deficiencies in the reIevctnt statistid material anb. majnr -gaps in .available information on the investment plans of States. 7, Another source of information used for the study was the large and constantly updated collection of research metial m hand wW'm ICAO, incladrng pdeal and occasicmdi publicahs of nafmml admnisCratiins and intemaional organizations, stuaes prepared by research agencies and individuals, the prmeedings of seminars. nnd conferences, and the aviation press. A wi range of informal contacts of the Wetariat in the relevant wtms . of the aviation industry and in government was also used.