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Circular 270
Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2005
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OUTLOOK FOR. AIR TRANSPORT TO THE YEAR 2005 Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION MONTREAL CANADA
Published in separate English, Arabic, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the International Civil Aviation Organization. All correspondence, except orders and subscriptions, should be addressed to the Secretary General. Orders for this publication should be sent to one of the following addresses, together with the appropriate remittance by bank draft, cheque or money order in U.S. dollars or the currency of the country in which the order is placed. Document Sales Unit International Civil Aviation Organization 999 University Street Montreal, Quebec Canada H3C 5H7 Telephone 514 954-8022 Telex 05-2451 3 Facsimile 5 14 954-6769 Sitatex YULCAYA Internet sales-unit icao.org Credit card orders American Express, Mastercard and Visa are accepted at the above address. Egypt. ICAO Representative, Middle East Office, Egyptian Civil Aviation Complex, Cairo Airport Road, Heliopolis, Cairo 11776 Telephone 20 2 267-4840 Facsimile 20 2 267-4843 Sitatex CAICAYA France. ReprCsentant de I'OACI, Bureau Europe et Atlantique Nord, 3 bis, villa t mile-ergerat, 92522 Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex TCICphone 33 1 46 41 85 85 TCltcopieur 33 1 46 41 85 00 Sitatex PAREUYA India. Oxford Book and Stationery Co., Scindia House, New Delhi 110001 or 17 Park Street, Calcutta 700016 Telephone 9 1 1 1 33 1-5896 Facsimile 91 1 1 332-2639 Japan. Japan Civil Aviation Promotion Foundation, 15-12, I-chome, Toranomon, Minato-Ku, Tokyo Telephone 81 3 3503-2686 Facsimile 81 3 3503-2689 Kenya. ICAO Representative, Eastern and Southern African Office, United Nations Accommodation, P.O. Box 46294, Nairob Telephone 254-2 622-395 Facsimile 254 2 226-706 Sitatex NBOCAYA Mexico. Representante de la OACI, Oficina NorteamCrica, CentroamCrica y Caribe, Masaryk No. 29-3er. piso, Col. Chapultepec Morales, MCxico, D.F., 11570 Teltfono 52 5 250-321 1 Facsimile 52 5 203-2757 Sitatex MEXCAYA Peru. Representante de la OACI, Oficina Sudamkrica, Apartado 4127, Lima 100 TelCfono 51 14 302260 Facsimile 51 14 640393 Sitatex LIMCAYA Senegal. ReprCsentant de I'OACI, Bureau Afrique occidentale et centrale, Boite postale 2356, Dakar TCICphone 221 23-47-86 TClCcopieur 221 23-69-26 Sitatex DKRCAYA Spain. A.E.N.A. - Aeropuertos Espaiioles y Navegaci6n ACrea, Calle Juan Ignacio Luca de Tena, 14, Planta Tercera, Despacho 3. 11, 28027 Madrid TelCfono 34 1 321-3148 Facsimile 34 1 321-3157 Thailand. ICAO Representative, Asia and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 11, Samyaek Ladprao, Bangkok 10901 Telephone 66 2 537-8189 Facsimile 66 2 537-8199 Sitatex BKKCAYA United Kingdom. The Printing and Publications Services Limited, 37 Windsor Street, Cheltenham, Glos., GL52 2DG Telephone 44 1242 235- 15 1 Facsimile 44 1242 584- 139 6/97 Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids Issued annually, the Catalogue lists all publications and audio-visual training aids currently available. Monthly supplements announce new publications and audio-visual training aids, amendments, supplements, reprints, etc. . Available free from the Document Sales Unit, ICAO
FOREWORD Introduction 1. This circular is the third in a series to be issued biennially or triennially the previous edition - Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2003 - was published in 1995 as Circular 252 and the first edition was published in 1992 as Circular 237. The present circular contains information on air transport trends and challenges and long-term airline passenger and freight traffic forecasts, in total and by region of registration, for the period through to the year 2005. In addition, it includes passenger traffic forecasts for international route groups and global forecasts of aircraft movements, again through to the year 2005. Sources of information 2. In addition to the ICAO Digests of Statistics, use has been made of many of the Organization's economic studies and of the Annual Reports of the Council to the Assembly for the years 1985 to 1995. Sources of information other than ICAO, referred to in the text, include the appropriate and most recently available statistical publications of the United Ngtions the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD the European Civil Aviation Conference ECAC the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD the International Air Transport Association IATA the Association of European Airlines AEA the United States Department of Transportation DOT the World Tourism Organization WTO the International Monetary Fund IMF the World Bank and Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates WEFA. 3. Unless indicated otherwise, all references in this circular to "cents" mean U.S. cents, and all references to "dollars" mean U.S. dollars references to "billion" mean one thousand million. Status 4. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his authority.
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Table Of Contents
COVER PAGE
FOREWORD
Table of Contents
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Appendix 1
Appendix 2