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Circular 252
Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2003
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CIRCULAR OUTLOOK FOR AIR TRANSPORT TO THE YEAR 2003 Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION MONTREAL CANADA
Published in separate English, Arabic, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the Interntow1 Civil Aviarion Orgnfiization. Ail correspondence,. except orders and subscriptloris, should be addressed to the Secretary Genemi. Orders for this publication should be sen to one of the folluwing addresses, together with the appropriate remittance by bank draft, cheque or money order in U.S. dollars or the currency of the country in which the order is placed. Document Sales Unit International Civil Aviation Organizatiolr 1OOO Skrbrooke Street West, Suite 400 Mmta1, Quebec Canada H3A 2RZ Te L. 5 1 4 285-8022 Telex 05-245 1 3 Fa 5 14 285-6769 Sitatex YULCAYA Credit card orders Visa or American Express only are accepted at the above address. Egp. ICAO iepreentative, Middle East Office. 9 Shagarec El Dorr Street, Zamalek 1 121 1, Cairo. Fmnce. Reprksentant de I'OACI, Bureau Eurape et Atlmtique Nod, 5 bis, villa mile-flewat, 92522 Neuil ly-sur-Seine Cedcx. India. Oxford Book and Srarionery Co., Scindia House, New Delhi l l 0301 or 17 Park Street, Calcurta 70001 6. The English Book Store, 17-1, Connaught Circus, New Delhi 1 10001. Japan. Japan CiviI Aviatian Promotion Foundation, 15-1 2, I-chame, Toranomon, Minata-Ku, Tokyo. Kenya. ICAO Representative, Eastern and Southern African Ofice. United Nations Accommodation, P.O. BOY. 46294, Nairobi. Mexico. Representante de la OACI, Oficina Noneamkrica, Centroamirica y Caribe, Apartado postal 5-377, C.P. 08500, M1Sxico. D.E . Peru. Representante de la OACI, Oficina Sudamkrica, Apattado 4127, Lima 100. Sengal. Repdsentant de I'OACI, Bureau Afriquc occidentale et centrale, Boite postale 2356, Dakar. Spain. A.E.N.A. - Aeropuertos Espaholes y Navegaci6n Airea, Calle Juan Ignaciv Luca de Tena, 14. Ptanta Tercera, hspacho 3. 11. 28027 Madrid. Thailand. ICAO Represeniative, Asia and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 11, Samyaek Ladprao, Bangkok 10901. United Kingdom. CiviI Aviation Authority, Printing and Publications Services, Greville House, 37 Gratton 'Road, Chekenham, Clos., GL50 2BN. The Catalogue of lCAO Publications and Audio Visual Training Aids issued annually, the Catalogue lists ail publications and audio visual training aids currently available. Monthly supplements announce new publications and audio visual training aids, amendments, supplements, reprints, etc. Available free from the Document Sales Unit, lCAO
FOREWORD Introduction 1. This circulaf is the second in a new series to be issued biennial1 y or triennially the prevjous edition - Outlwk for Air Transpt ,w the Bar 2001 - was published in 1 992 as Circular 237. The present circular contains information on air transport trends and challenges and long-term airline passenger and freight traffic forecasts, in total and by region of registration, for the period through to the year 2003. In addition, it includes passenger traffic forecasts for international route groups and global forecasts of aircraft movements, again through to the yw 2003. In recognition of the 50th amjvexsary of the signing of the Convention on Xnternational Civil Aviation in December 1944, a 50-year summary of the performance of the air mansport industry is included on this occasion as an introduction to the chapter on trends and challenges. Souras of information 2. In addition to the JCAO Digests of Statistics, use has been made of many of the Organization's economic studies, such as earlier forecast publications, the study on the Ecomic Implications of Future Noise Restrictions on Subsonic Jet Aixraft Circular 218, the study on Investment Requiwmertts for AdrcrQft F1eeD and far Admrt md Route FaciIispl InfPatwfm lo the Yedr 2010 Circular 23A and a former series of regional studies dealing with the development of international air freight and air passenger transport. Use has also been made of the Annual Reports of the Council to the Assembly for the years 1981 to 1992. 3. Sources of information other than ICAO, referred to in the text, include the appropriate and most recently avaiilable statistical publications of the United Nations the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD the European Civil Aviation Conference ECAC the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD the International Air Transport Assmiation IATA the Assodation of European Airlines AEA the United States Department of Transportation DOT the World Tourism Organization WTO the International Monetary Fund IMF the World Bank and Whmon Econometxjcs Forecasting Assmiam WEFA. 4. Unless indicated otherwise, all references in this circular to "'cents" mean U.S, cents, and all references to "dollars" mean U.S. dollars references to "billion" mean one thousand million. Status 5. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his authority.
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Table Of Contents
COVER PAGE
FOREWORD
Table of Contents
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Appendix 1
Appendix 2