CIRCULAR OUTLOOK FOR AIR TRANSPORT TO THE YEAR 2003 Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION MONTREAL CANADA
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FOREWORD Introduction 1. This circulaf is the second in a new series to be issued biennial1 y or triennially the prevjous edition - Outlwk for Air Transpt ,w the Bar 2001 - was published in 1 992 as Circular 237. The present circular contains information on air transport trends and challenges and long-term airline passenger and freight traffic forecasts, in total and by region of registration, for the period through to the year 2003. In addition, it includes passenger traffic forecasts for international route groups and global forecasts of aircraft movements, again through to the yw 2003. In recognition of the 50th amjvexsary of the signing of the Convention on Xnternational Civil Aviation in December 1944, a 50-year summary of the performance of the air mansport industry is included on this occasion as an introduction to the chapter on trends and challenges. Souras of information 2. In addition to the JCAO Digests of Statistics, use has been made of many of the Organization's economic studies, such as earlier forecast publications, the study on the Ecomic Implications of Future Noise Restrictions on Subsonic Jet Aixraft Circular 218, the study on Investment Requiwmertts for AdrcrQft F1eeD and far Admrt md Route FaciIispl InfPatwfm lo the Yedr 2010 Circular 23A and a former series of regional studies dealing with the development of international air freight and air passenger transport. Use has also been made of the Annual Reports of the Council to the Assembly for the years 1981 to 1992. 3. Sources of information other than ICAO, referred to in the text, include the appropriate and most recently avaiilable statistical publications of the United Nations the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD the European Civil Aviation Conference ECAC the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD the International Air Transport Assmiation IATA the Assodation of European Airlines AEA the United States Department of Transportation DOT the World Tourism Organization WTO the International Monetary Fund IMF the World Bank and Whmon Econometxjcs Forecasting Assmiam WEFA. 4. Unless indicated otherwise, all references in this circular to "'cents" mean U.S, cents, and all references to "dollars" mean U.S. dollars references to "billion" mean one thousand million. Status 5. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his authority.
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